San Antonio STR Investor Pro Formas That Actually Work

Thinking about buying or converting a property into a short-term rental in San Antonio? If you have looked at a few flashy projections and thought, “That seems high,” you are not alone. The best pro formas in Bexar County are conservative, season-aware, and built around the city’s permitting and tax rules. In this guide, you will learn a practical way to model revenue, expenses, and compliance so your numbers actually hold up once you go live. Let’s dive in.

Why conservative pro formas work in San Antonio

San Antonio demand looks steady on the surface, but it is highly seasonal and event driven. Spring is strong thanks to Fiesta and good weather, summer brings leisure travelers at more price-sensitive rates, fall sees conference and sports traffic, and winter is quieter outside of holidays. Different neighborhoods show different patterns, so you want to build your assumptions by location and property type.

Your underwriting should start with historical, local data and then apply a haircut. Using median occupancy and average daily rate from at least two nonpandemic years helps remove outliers. Reducing those figures 10 to 20 percent for your base case protects you from competition growth and platform changes. Always add a downside case with a 25 to 40 percent reduction or an extended offseason.

Build your revenue assumptions

Pull local comps the right way

Start with 12 to 24 months of occupancy and ADR for nearby comparable properties. Focus on your exact property type. Entire homes perform differently than private rooms. Look for comps near the River Walk and Alamo, downtown and the convention center, historic districts like King William and Tobin Hill, near military bases or universities, and in suburban corridors. Downtown areas trend toward higher ADR with more volatility around events. Suburban homes often have steadier occupancy with lower ADR.

Collect these items from market tools and public sources:

• Monthly occupancy and ADR for 1 to 3 close comps
• ADR by bedroom count
• Booking lead times and cancellation rates
• Channel mix and whether platforms collect taxes for hosts
• Amenity and pricing differences you need to adjust for

Translate comps to monthly seasonality

Model revenue month by month. San Antonio spikes during major conventions and Fiesta, while summer demand can require more competitive pricing. Build three monthly bands that reflect how your calendar behaves:

• High months: spring peaks and major events
• Base months: average conditions
• Low months: winter and soft shoulder periods

Use your comps as a template and then layer your conservative haircut. Do not rely on a single annual occupancy figure. Monthly modeling helps you plan cash flow for slow periods and staffing for peak turnover.

Choose occupancy and ADR bands

Create three scenarios per month:

• Base case: median local numbers minus 10 to 20 percent
• High case: comps aligned with event-driven spikes, held in check by realistic caps
• Downside: a 25 to 40 percent reduction in occupancy or an extended low season

Be careful if your strategy relies on a handful of weekends or one event. Overreliance on Fiesta or graduation dates can break the model if pricing softens or rules change.

Model stay length and minimum nights

Your minimum-night policy impacts both bookings and costs. Estimate average stay length for your comp set and apply it. Turnovers equal nights booked divided by average stay. Fewer turnovers can lower cleaning and laundry expense but may reduce booking frequency. Stress test different minimum-night settings so you understand the tradeoffs.

Nail the expense side

Variable costs per booking

Variable costs change with the number of stays. Include:

• Cleaning and turnover fees you pay vendors
• Laundry, consumables, and small replacements
• Trash overage or bulk pick-up charges when applicable

Never assume guest-paid cleaning fees fully cover your cost. Platforms and market competition can push you to keep that fee modest. Model a realistic per-turnover amount plus periodic deep cleans.

Fixed monthly costs

Fixed and recurring expenses include:

• Electricity, water, gas, internet, and streaming
• Insurance sized for short-term rental use
• Property management if you outsource, often 20 to 35 percent of gross revenue for full service
• Platform and payment processing fees
• Routine maintenance, supplies, and a maintenance reserve of 5 to 10 percent of gross
• Capex reserve of 5 to 10 percent of gross for furniture and appliances
• HOA dues and assessments if applicable

Older homes and high-turnover units deserve a higher reserve. Budget more for maintenance if your listing targets larger groups.

Taxes and fees to plan for

Plan for taxes and compliance from day one. In Texas, the state imposes a hotel occupancy tax and local jurisdictions, including San Antonio, may collect additional occupancy taxes. Some platforms may collect and remit certain taxes, but you should confirm what is covered for San Antonio hosts and what remains your responsibility. You may need to register with the Texas Comptroller and the City of San Antonio for tax collection and remittance.

Property tax is based on valuation. Short-term rental income does not typically change the tax class by statute, but any use change questions should be confirmed with the Bexar County Appraisal District. Include business registration, STR registration, inspection fees, and permit renewals in your annual operating expenses.

Cleaning and turnover math

• Turnovers per month: nights booked divided by average length of stay
• Cleaning cost: turnovers multiplied by your vendor’s per-turnover rate
• Add deep clean line items quarterly or semiannually
• Laundry: include per-turnover cost if billed separately or adjust your cleaning rate

Underwrite with your actual out-of-pocket cost, not what you charge guests. This protects your net income if you lower your guest cleaning fee to compete.

Permits and compliance in San Antonio

Step-by-step workflow

1. Verify zoning and allowed use for the property address. Confirm that short-term rentals are permitted in your zoning district and whether any overlays or HOA rules apply.
2. Confirm STR registration requirements with the City of San Antonio. Determine whether you need annual registration, inspections, owner contact postings, and specific safety documentation.
3. Register for taxes as needed. Confirm your responsibilities with the Texas Comptroller for hotel occupancy tax and any local taxes. Verify what your booking platforms remit on your behalf.
4. Prepare the unit to meet health and safety standards. Typical items include smoke and carbon monoxide alarms, egress, occupancy limits, and basic electrical and plumbing safety.
5. Submit the STR registration and schedule any required inspections.
6. Wait for your registration number before listing. Keep records and track renewal dates.

Typical timelines

• Zoning and permissibility confirmation: immediate to 1 to 2 weeks
• STR registration processing: about 2 to 8 weeks depending on volume
• Inspections: 1 to 6 weeks depending on availability
• Texas Comptroller registrations: online in days, full activation in 1 to 2 weeks

If registration is required, avoid listing before approval. Fines and takedowns are common.

Enforcement risks and buffers

Model a compliance reserve equal to 1 to 3 months of gross revenue. This prepares you for possible delays, renewals, or a temporary suspension triggered by complaints or inspections. Platform policies can change and may restrict bookings without active registration.

A practical pro forma template

Build a month-by-month model with three scenarios. Include these lines for each month and a rolling annual total:

Revenue

• Gross rental revenue: occupancy percent multiplied by ADR multiplied by available nights
• Cleaning fee income from guests, modeled conservatively
• Other revenue such as pet fees or parking

Operating expenses

• Platform and payment processing fees
• Cleaning costs per turnover and deep cleans
• Property management fees if used
• Utilities and internet
• Trash, HOA dues
• STR insurance premium
• Routine maintenance and supplies
• Linens and laundry
• Marketing or channel management
• Maintenance reserve of 5 to 10 percent of gross
• Capex reserve of 5 to 10 percent of gross

Taxes and compliance

• Hotel occupancy taxes as a percent of taxable revenue
• Any sales tax if applicable
• STR registration and inspection fees amortized
• Property tax with a cushion for valuation changes

Then calculate net operating income, subtract debt service if financed, and track cash-on-cash return. Add a dashboard for break-even occupancy and sensitivity tests.

Conservative modeling rules

• Apply a 10 to 20 percent haircut to historical occupancy or ADR for the base case
• Include a downside scenario with a 25 to 40 percent reduction or elongated offseason
• Model cleaning as a host-paid expense that is not fully offset by guest fees
• Reserve 10 to 15 percent of gross for maintenance and capex combined for older or high-turnover homes
• Add a compliance reserve equal to 1 to 3 months of gross revenue

Sensitivity tests worth running

• Break-even occupancy: the occupancy needed at your base ADR to cover all costs and debt
• ADR change: how plus or minus 10 percent ADR shifts your NOI
• Occupancy shock: the impact of losing 30 to 60 days due to a permit delay
• Long-term rental comparison: 12-month net income estimate for a conventional lease with vacancy, management, and maintenance included

Red flags to avoid

• Listing before permits or without checking zoning or HOA rules
• Banking on one season or event to make the year work
• Underestimating cleaning, linen, and restock costs
• Ignoring tax remittance gaps between state and local obligations
• Skipping safety compliance like smoke and CO detectors or exit rules

Quick-start checklist for Bexar County hosts

• Pull neighborhood comps for occupancy and ADR by month for the last 12 months
• Confirm the City of San Antonio’s current STR registration and inspection steps
• Verify tax registrations with the Texas Comptroller and the city; confirm what platforms remit
• Get a short-term rental insurance quote that matches your use
• Build a monthly pro forma with base, high, and downside cases; include turnover math and reserves
• Create a compliance folder with permits, tax accounts, safety checks, and local contact info to post onsite if required

STR vs long-term comparison tips

Model a parallel long-term lease scenario so you can compare net outcomes. Use realistic rent comps, a vacancy allowance, management fees if you outsource, and typical maintenance. Some suburban San Antonio properties may produce similar or better risk-adjusted returns as long-term rentals with less turnover, while others shine as short-term rentals near events or the urban core. Your goal is to choose the path with the most dependable net yield for your goals and timeline.

Final thoughts

A short-term rental in San Antonio can perform well if you build your numbers around real local seasonality, conservative assumptions, and the city’s permitting and tax framework. If a pro forma still works after a haircut and a downside case, you are looking at a plan with staying power. If it only works during Fiesta, keep looking or adjust your strategy.

If you want a second set of eyes on a property or help weighing STR against a long-term lease option, our local team is here to walk you through next steps, from neighborhood fit to resale value. Ready to evaluate a purchase or reposition an existing home? Reach out to Harkin Realty to compare scenarios and get your plan dialed in. Get Your Instant Home Valuation.

FAQs

What makes a San Antonio STR pro forma realistic?

• It uses 12 to 24 months of local comps, applies a 10 to 20 percent haircut to occupancy or ADR, models monthly seasonality, and includes taxes, permits, and true cleaning costs.

How should I estimate cleaning and turnover costs for an STR?

• Calculate turnovers as nights booked divided by average stay length, multiply by your vendor’s per-turnover cost, and add periodic deep cleans and laundry.

Which taxes apply to short-term rentals in San Antonio?

• Texas has a state hotel occupancy tax and San Antonio may impose local occupancy taxes. Confirm required registrations and what platforms remit on your behalf.

How long does STR registration in San Antonio take?

• Plan for about 2 to 8 weeks for registration processing plus 1 to 6 weeks for inspections, depending on workload and scheduling.

What is a safe management fee to underwrite if I do not self-manage?

• For full-service management, 20 to 35 percent of gross rental revenue is a common range. Itemize any add-on services and setup fees.

How do I stress test my STR numbers?

• Run a downside case with a 25 to 40 percent reduction in occupancy or ADR, simulate losing 30 to 60 booking days, and check break-even occupancy at your base ADR.